Minnesota’s Demographic Time Bomb: Our elderly. A possible solution.

 

We can easily diagnose a future problem by looking at demographic projections. Minnesota’s senior population is aging sharply, rising from under 17% of the state in 2025 to over 20% by 2030, with further gradual increases into 2040. This demographic shift will likely have broad effects on healthcare, housing, social services, transportation, and workforce dynamics.

ChatGPT.com prompt (7/13/2025): What is the current number and percentage of people in Minnesota over the age of 65 and what are the projections 5, 10 and 15 years from now?

 

Our existing elder care facilities in Minnesota are often short of available beds, as well as staff to care for the residents. The demographic projections show that the challenge is a systemic problem which is projected to only get worse.

The problems have many causes:

• High costs of health care
• Extensive care required by many of the residents
• Regulations regarding the numbers and types of professionals needed to be on staff and/or on duty to ensure proper and availability of care to those who need it.
• Difficulty in recruiting employees due to low wages for many of the employees, some unfavorable hours of employment, low prestige for the work involved and some work that is unpleasant.
• The high turnover rate of employees.
• Low reimbursement rates through Medicaid (for which the majority of elder care residents qualify for) from the federal and state governments for the facilities’ services (according to the facilities’ owners)
• Constrained Minnesota state budgets

There may be a way to obtain ample numbers of employees who would be happy to work for the low wages and work conditions without breaking the state’s budget – the federal EB-3 visa process.

The EB-3 visa program is the Employment Based visa system, and more specifically, for the unskilled bulk of the people who seek to come to the U.S. from impoverished countries. The EB-3 visa allows a foreign national to obtain a green card and become a “legal permanent resident” of the U.S. based on getting sponsored by a U.S. company. The purpose of the EB3 visas is to help U.S. employers fill jobs that cannot be filled with current U.S. residents with foreign nationals who wish to enter the U.S. legally. An “unskilled worker” visa must demonstrate the ability to perform the unskilled labor, requiring less than 2 years of training or experience that is not of a temporary or seasonal nature. Nursing aides, home health assistants, food service workers and janitors all fit the description for the types of jobs that EB-3 visa holders can fill – all of which are needed by elder care facilities.

The first step in any EB-3 program is initiated by the employer, not any employee. Many of the workers in elder care facilities are directly employed by the State of Minnesota, so the state could theoretically begin the process by obtaining a labor certification from the U.S. Department of Labor. Private employers could also do this, but it probably would be feasible for only employers of large numbers of eligible workers because the process is cumbersome, slow and would necessitate spending some money in the effort.

·        A robust EB-3 program by the state could result in a reliable source of new laborers for the elder care facilities at which the state employees work, alleviating the shortage of workers.

·        These immigrants would likely be grateful for the opportunities even at the prevailing low wages, considering the awful conditions from which they would come.

·        Also, although there is no minimum time an EB-3 visa holder must stay with the original employer, they are far less likely to leave for other job opportunities than U.S. nationals.

·        The tradeoff would be a less favorable bargaining position for the unions which represent workers at elder care facilities in Minnesota – SEIU, AFSCME Council 5 and the United Steelworkers District 1 – which advocate for better working conditions, wages and benefits for their members - members who diligently and compassionately provide the necessary services for our elderly population.

Conclusion: When balancing these tradeoffs, I would favor a robust EB-3 program for workers at elder care facilities, especially considering the needs of the growing numbers of elderly and the need for the State to control its spending.

Prepared and paid for by Olson Senate Committee, P.O. Box 15, Prior Lake, MN 55372